Inflation in India: What It Is, Why It Happens and How It’s Controlled

Inflation is a term you might have encountered in the news or read about in the papers. But what exactly does it mean? How does it occur, and how can it be controlled? In this blog, we’ll explore the answers to these questions, shedding light on what inflation is, why it happens, and how India manages it.

What is Inflation?

Inflation is defined as the rate at which the cost of services and goods increases, causing the purchasing power of the rupee to decrease. When inflation increases, you get less for the same amount of money. For example, if the inflation rate is 5%, something that cost 100 rupees last year would cost 105 this year.

Let’s try to understand it with the help of one more example. Imagine this scenario in your local market:

Today, you go to a local market and buy a kilogram of rice for ₹40.

Next Year, you go to the same market, and the same kilogram of rice now costs ₹45.

That increase from ₹40 to ₹45 is due to inflation. It means the value of your money decreases, so you need more money to buy the same things.

What Causes Inflation?

There are three major factors that are responsible for inflation:

1. Demand-Pull Inflation

This occurs when the demand for services and goods exceeds their supply. Imagine a festive season where everyone wants to buy new clothes, gadgets, and gifts. If the supply doesn’t meet the high demand, prices go up.

2. Cost-Push Inflation

This happens when the costs of production increase, leading businesses to raise prices to maintain their profit margins. For example, if the price of oil goes up, it becomes more expensive to produce and transport goods, and these costs are passed on to consumers.

3. Built-In Inflation

Sometimes, inflation can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If people expect prices to rise, they might demand higher wages. Businesses then raise prices to cover higher wage costs, leading to a cycle of increasing prices and wages.

How Does Inflation Impact the Indian Economy?

Inflation impacts the Indian economy in various ways, affecting different sectors and economic agents uniquely. Here’s a detailed look at how inflation influences the Indian economy:

1. Purchasing Power

Consumers: High inflation corrupts consumers’ purchasing power as the cost of goods and services increases. This can lead to a reduction in the standard of living, especially for the lower and middle classes, who spend a large portion of their income on essential items.

Businesses: Increased costs of raw materials and wages due to inflation can squeeze profit margins for businesses, leading to potential cutbacks in investment and employment.

2. Interest Rates

Monetary Policy: The RBI typically raises interest rates to combat high inflation. Higher interest rates can reduce borrowing and spending, slowing down economic growth.

Borrowing Costs: Increased interest rates make borrowing more expensive for individuals and businesses, which can dampen investment and consumption.

3. Savings and Investments

Savings: High inflation can discourage savings as the real returns on savings decline. People might seek alternative investments that offer better returns against inflation, such as real estate or gold.

Investments: Inflation can lead to increased uncertainty, making investors wary. However, specific sectors, like real estate and commodities, might see increased investments as hedges against inflation.

4. Wages and Employment

Wages: Workers may demand higher wages to keep up with the rising cost of living. This can lead to a wage-price spiral if businesses increase prices to cover higher wage costs, further fueling inflation.

Employment: In the short term, inflation might lead to lower employment as businesses face higher costs. However, if inflation is driven by strong demand, it could also lead to job creation in specific sectors.

5. Exports and Imports

Competitiveness: High domestic inflation can make Indian goods more expensive on the international market, reducing export competitiveness. Conversely, it can make imports cheaper, potentially worsening the trade balance.

Currency Value: Persistent high inflation can lead to a depreciation of the Indian rupee, making imports more expensive and potentially leading to imported inflation.

6. Government Finances

Public Debt: Inflation can reduce the real value of government debt, easing the burden of repayment. However, if interest rates rise in response to inflation, the cost of servicing new debt can increase.

Fiscal Policy: The government might need to increase social spending to support those hit hardest by inflation, putting pressure on public finances.

7. Inequality

Inflation can disproportionately affect people experiencing poverty, who spend a larger share of their income on essentials like food and fuel. This can exacerbate income inequality and social unrest.

8. Sectoral Impact

Agriculture: Inflation can impact the agricultural sector differently based on the type of inflation. For example, food inflation can benefit farmers in the short term but can harm consumers.

Manufacturing and Services: Rising costs of inputs due to inflation can hurt manufacturing and services, reducing output and profitability.

9. Mitigation Strategies

Monetary Policy: The RBI controls inflation using tools like interest rate adjustments, open market operations, and reserve requirements.

Fiscal Policy: Government measures such as subsidies, tax adjustments, and spending programs can help mitigate the adverse effects of inflation.

Structural Reforms: Long-term reforms to increase productivity, improve supply chains, and enhance economic efficiency can help control inflation.

Inflation has complex and far-reaching effects on the Indian economy, influencing consumer behaviour, business investment, government policy, and overall economic stability. Managing inflation effectively requires a balanced approach considering immediate and long-term impacts.

The Effect of Inflation on Purchasing Power

Inflation is the rate at which the cost of goods and services increases, causing the purchasing power of the rupee to fall. When inflation increases, you get less for the same amount of money. For example, if Rs. 1 crore appears to be a significant amount, the value of 1 crore after 30 years will have substantially less purchasing power. The actual worth of Rs. 1 crore will significantly decrease if the annual average inflation rate stays at 5%, affecting your future purchasing power.

How to Control Inflation in India?

Inflation impacts everyone, but it can be particularly challenging for people on fixed incomes, like retirees. It erodes the value of savings and can make everyday essentials more expensive. However, moderate inflation is normal and can indicate a growing economy. The key is to keep it under control.

Controlling inflation is crucial for maintaining economic stability. Here are some ways India tries to manage inflation:

1. Monetary Policy

The RBI controls inflation using tools like interest rates and reserve requirements. By raising interest rates, the RBI makes borrowing more expensive, which can reduce spending and slow down inflation. Conversely, lowering interest rates can stimulate spending and investment.

2. Fiscal Policy

The government can adjust its spending and tax policies to influence the economy. Reducing government spending or increasing taxes can cool down an overheating economy and control inflation.

3. Supply Chain Improvements

Enhancing the efficiency of supply chains can help control inflation by reducing production and transportation costs. This might include investing in infrastructure like roads, railways, and ports.

4. Regulation of Essential Commodities

The government can regulate the prices of goods and services like food and fuel. Ensuring these items are available at stable prices can help prevent sharp spikes in inflation.

5. Buffer Stocks

Maintaining buffer stocks of essential commodities like grains can help manage supply and stabilise prices during shortages.

6. Exchange Rate Management

Controlling the exchange rate can influence inflation. A weaker currency makes imports more expensive, hence contributing to inflation. The RBI can intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilise the currency and manage inflationary pressures.

Impact of Inflation on the Future Value of the Rupee

Inflation directly impacts the future value of the Rupee, eroding its purchasing power over time. With the rise of inflation, the exact amount of money will buy only a few goods and services in the future. For instance, if the inflation rate is 6% per year, ₹100 today equals approximately ₹133.82 in five years. This means that to keep the same purchasing power, one would require ₹133.82 in the future to buy what ₹100 can purchase today.

The RBI’s policies, rate of interest, and global economic aspects also play a key role in determining inflation and, therefore, the rupee’s future value. A higher inflation rate lowers the future value of the rupee, making long-term savings less valuable and affecting economic stability. It is better to keep inflation in check to preserve the rupee’s worth and ensure financial stability.

Conclusion

Inflation is a complex phenomenon that significantly impacts the economy and our daily lives. While it can be challenging to control, a mix of monetary policy, fiscal measures, and strategic interventions can help keep inflation in check. You can use Stack’s Present Value Calculator to estimate the current worth of a future sum of money or stream of cash flows given a specified rate of return.

By understanding how inflation works and how it’s managed, we can better appreciate the efforts to maintain economic stability and ensure that our money retains its value over time.

FAQs

1. How is inflation measured in India?

Ans: Inflation in India is measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI). The CPI tracks retail prices consumers pay for a basket of everyday goods and services, reflecting the cost of living. It includes categories like food, housing, and transportation. The WPI measures price changes at the wholesale level, covering primary articles, fuel, and manufactured products. Both indices guide the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy and help analyse economic trends.

2. How much inflation is good for the economy?

Ans: Moderate inflation, typically around 2-3% per year, is usually seen as a sign of a healthy economy. It can make people and businesses spend and invest more now because they expect prices to increase later. But if inflation is too high, it can cause problems.

3. What is deflation?

Ans: Deflation is the opposite of inflation; it is the decrease in the general price of goods and services, leading to an increase in the purchasing power of money.

4. What is hyperinflation?

Ans: Hyperinflation occurs when prices rise extremely rapidly, typically at a rate of over 50% per month. This rapid increase causes money to lose its value quickly, meaning you need much more money to buy the same things. Hyperinflation causes severe economic problems, leading to instability and making it difficult for people to afford basic goods and services. It can also make everyday life very difficult as the value of savings drops and prices change constantly.

5. How does inflation affect savings?

Ans: Inflation reduces the value of money over time, so the money you save today will buy less in the future. If the interest rates on savings accounts don’t keep up with inflation, the real value of your savings goes down. This means that even though you have the same amount of money saved, it won’t go as far in buying things because prices have increased. This can make it harder to maintain your purchasing power.